- Lia Cromwell of UpWest discusses 2025 trends and 2026 predictions.
- Most startups are building 'under the radar' despite headline-grabbing mega-rounds.
- Silicon Valley re-emerges as the epicenter for AI talent.
- Israeli resilience proves a strong asset in a volatile global market.
In a candid discussion, Lia Cromwell, a partner at UpWest, sheds light on the nuanced landscape of the tech industry, reflecting on 2025 and offering bold predictions for 2026. While the headlines often trumpet massive funding rounds, Cromwell emphasizes that the true innovation is often happening quietly, 'under the radar,' with teams achieving significant milestones with fewer resources, largely thanks to the transformative power of AI.
Cromwell highlights a significant 'disconnect between the noise and the reality' in startup funding. Despite publicized mega-rounds and soaring valuations, the majority of early-stage companies are operating discreetly, focusing on efficiency and leveraging AI to 'achieve a lot more with a lot less.' This trend underscores a shift towards lean, impactful development, challenging the narrative of endless capital.
Another pivotal observation is the 'return of AI to Silicon Valley.' After a period of decentralization during and after COVID, AI talent and founders are reconverging in San Francisco. Cromwell likens this to Tel Aviv's role in cybersecurity, asserting that Silicon Valley is once again the undeniable heart of AI innovation, a crucial hub for Israeli founders seeking to enter the US market from day one.
Looking ahead to 2026, UpWest is particularly enthusiastic about 'vertical AI.' This involves applying AI to specialized domains, much like the vertical SaaS model of the past. Examples include AI solutions for manufacturing, healthcare, and biotech, where deep industry expertise meets cutting-edge technology. This specialized approach allows founders to solve specific problems more effectively than broad, horizontal AI applications.
Cromwell also addresses the perennial question of whether AI is a bubble. Her view is that it's 'both enduring' and likely to see 'a level of cooling' or correction. AI is now the fundamental baseline for all software, making it indispensable. However, some companies with 'wild valuations' and high customer churn may face adjustments. The market is also seeing a healthy trend of 'microsized pre-seed' rounds (under $500,000), enabling AI teams to rapidly validate their market assumptions without needing massive initial capital, a strategy that fosters agility and innovation.
“The reality is that actually most teams are building under the radar somewhat quietly in the middle. Where we're hearing about all of those, you know, massive rounds even for early stage companies at high valuations, actually, there's a lot of teams who are looking to do a lot more with less.”
- Lia Cromwell, Partner at UpWest
